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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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