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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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