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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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