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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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