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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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