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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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