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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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