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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 240K mt of Semi-Anthracite and Anthracite Coal f ...
Monday, 14 November 16
DUNIA MAKMUR SUBSIDIARY BAGS MINING SERVICE CONTRACT WORTH $ 282.63 MILLION
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), has signed a life of mine contract with PT Tadjahan Antang Mineral (TAM) with a contract value of approximate ...
Monday, 14 November 16
THE CAPE INDEX ROSE 44.57 PER CENTS TO 2303 POINT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 11 November 16
INDONESIAN 4200 GAR COAL IS THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COAL IN TODAY'S MARKET - OPINION POLL
“ Which coal type of Indonesian origin do you find the most attractive in today's market?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted ...
Friday, 11 November 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT FELL SLIGHTLY W/E NOVEMBER 5
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.9 million short ton ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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