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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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