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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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