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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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