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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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