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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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