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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
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