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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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