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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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