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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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