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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 18 March 16
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LITTLE TO LOOK FORWARD TO FROM CHINA AT THE MOMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s rebound is long overdue, but when it comes, it won’t be because of China’s strong demand for commodities, o ...
Friday, 18 March 16
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES SLIGHTLY DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 March 16
THE PANAMAX MARKET SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOPPISH THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There are challenging days with rates or less unchanged from last week; West Australia to China still below US$ 3 pmt, and Tuarao to China i ...
Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen mo ...
Tuesday, 15 March 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.78 MMT OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped AU$1,110.5 mi ...
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Showing 2516 to 2520 news of total 6871 |
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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