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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 23 March 16
THE PANAMA CANAL - WILL THE MELTING OF POLAR ICE CAPS CREATE RIVAL NAVIGATIONAL WATERWAYS THROUGH THE ARCTIC? - INTERMODAL
The Panama Canal, 102 years after its initial opening, is now about to have its expansion completed with a cost of USD5.25 Billion. It is a project ...
Tuesday, 22 March 16
FOUR NEW MARKET MEMBERS HAVE JOINED GLOBALCOAL
globalCOAL® announced yesterday that four new Market Members have joined its international trading community.
Ferrocadia DMCC is an intern ...
Monday, 21 March 16
INDONESIAN 4200 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE $0.12 OR, 0.44% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDEX CLOASED AT $27.19 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.21 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 21 March 16
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX ROSE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 11.93%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued rose this week helped by higher rates for Cape ...
Friday, 18 March 16
OUTLOOK ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR TURNS NEGATIVE AS SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP WIDENS AND EBITDA DECLINES - MOODY'S
Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has changed its outlook on the global shipping sector to negative as it expects supply growth to ou ...
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Showing 2511 to 2515 news of total 6871 |
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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