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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
NEWBUILDINGS' PRICES HAVE STARTED TO COME DOWN - ALLIED | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuildings’ prices have started to come down, as demand has remained subdued for quite some time now. In its latest weekly report, shipbrok ...
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Showing 2506 to 2510 news of total 6871 |
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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