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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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