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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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