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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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