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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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