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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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