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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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