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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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