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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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