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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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