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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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