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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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