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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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