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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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