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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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