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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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