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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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