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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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