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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”
Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.
According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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