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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”
Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.
According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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