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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.

According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”

Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.

According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide


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