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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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