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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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