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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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