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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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