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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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