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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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