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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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