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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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