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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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