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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
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