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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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