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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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