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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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