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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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