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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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