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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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