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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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